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Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Jumbled up UAAP Standings

*blog posted last August 30 at http://carloricohermoso.net

Five game-dates remaining. 8 crucial games. All because of Ateneo's upset loss against the UST Growling Tigers.

At the three fourths mark of the eliminations, we see Ateneo at 8-1, UE creeping at 7-2, UST at 5-5, and FEU at 5-6. Adamson catches up at 4-5, NU at 3-7 with UP at 2-8. Right now, Ateneo and UE are assured of a twice-to-beat-advantage, whatever happens to their remaining games (their placings will be another thing to decide on). UP is the only team assured of at least preparing for the next season. Meanwhile, UST, Adamson, FEU, and NU each have a crack at the last two slots of the final four.

For Ateneo, they will be up against NU, FEU, and UE . The odds are against Ateneo, since they will be facing a well rested FEU (who will have almost 10 days of rest before the match). To add insult to the injury, they will be up against UE two days after. Should they win against NU, the battle may be over for the Bulldogs. A win against FEU will boost UST's chances of securing a final four slot, and finally a win against UE may give them the top spot.

UE faces relatively easy tasks of going up against Adamson and UP, before facing Ateneo. Wins by the Warriors against Adamson and UP will not only boost their chances at the top spot and give Ateneo the boot off the top spot, but also will make things difficult for Falcons to make it to the next round.

For the Pido Jarencio-led UST Growling Tigers who are riding high on a three game winning streak from NU, FEU, and Ateneo (argh), they will be battling first round tormentors UP and Adamson. Should they win their remaining games, they may not only secure the third spot, but put pressure on the Falcons and the Tams and leave the two fighting on the last spot. Another possibility is that UST, AdU, and FEU each have a 6-6 record (which assumes all of them gain a win each).

The Tamaraws meanwhile are a waiting team, and their game against Ateneo may prove to be crucial for them. Currently having a 5-6 record, they may either gain a 6-6 record with a win against Ateneo or as far as 5-7, should they lose. As mentioned, they have an advantage over the Eagles with a long rest a burning desire to survive and move to the next round.

Adamson is another interesting team to mark, as they're aiming for a top four spot since the final four format was implemented in 1994. Their last appearance in a finals was way back in the days of EJ Feihl, Marlou Aquino, and Kenneth Duremdes in 1992 (against a Nestor Echano, Vic Pablo, and Johnny Abbarientos led-FEU). Currently spotting a 4-5 record, they're up against NU, UE, and UST. They may go as high as third place (and dislodge UST off that spot) or may even go as low as 5-7 and get the boot should UST win against them and FEU win against Ateneo. The UE-AdU game is a game of survival for Adamson, and their game against UST is a game for the right for the final four slot.

NU, as mentioned, has to win its last two games against Ateneo and Adamson if they want to make it to the next round. Not only those tasks, but also pray that UST loses its last two games, Adamson loses at least two games, and FEU loses to Ateneo, so that all of them (UST, FEU, Adamson, and NU all carry a 5-7 record). Ateneo shouldn't count the Bulldogs out- they were almost beaten by this ragtag scrappy team in the UAAP opening day.

To sum it up:

Ateneo must win its last three games if it wants a safe place on the top.

A UE loss (assuming Ateneo does well in the next 3 games) may permanently relegate them to second place.

FEU has two weeks rest before facing off Ateneo. If they lose and Adamson win two of its games and UST win one, they will be eliminated for the first time since 2002.

NU has to win its last two games and pray that UST,
Adamson, and FEU lose so they may at least tie those three schools with a 5-7 record.

UST needs at least a victory to assure themselves a slot in the final four.

UP is booted out.

It all sums up to one cliche: it's not how you start games, rather its how you finish them. Each of the teams will have to fight it out to the finish.

Let the last leg of the UAAP eliminations begin.

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